Fed decisions, Treasury dynamics, ECB moves, and how liquidity flows drive every asset class. Not commentary — a framework.
Trade policy, sanctions, currency regimes, and the structural forces reshaping global capital flows. Where the money is going and why.
What the smart money is doing. Activist campaigns, institutional flows, and the catalysts about to create value in specific stocks.
AI infrastructure spending, the scarcity thesis, and which companies are building the physical rails of the next economic cycle.
We get the January jobs report on Wednesday, and inflation data on Friday. Both are going the direction that supports lower rates.
But as we know, that's the direction of travel — it's a matter of whether Jerome Powell's Fed makes another move before his term ends, or if he leaves it to the Kevin Warsh Fed to clean up.
On the latter, we've talked about the prospects for the new Fed regime (which officially arrives in May) to strike a 1951-like "accord" with the Treasury (a Treasury-Fed Accord 2.0).
This is about divorce. It's about getting the Fed out of the government debt-financing business. That forces the Treasury (the government) to be more disciplined. It stops the distortion in markets and outcomes, and preserves the value and reserve currency status of the dollar...
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