13 Years of Documented Market Calls

With the Nikkei at 13,000 — down 80% from its 1989 highs and bumping along a decade-long bottom — Rich published a formal investment thesis calling Japanese stocks "the trade of the decade." The Nikkei had just broken a 23-year downtrend. The BOJ under new governor Kuroda had launched the most aggressive monetary experiment in history, targeting 2% inflation from negative 1%. Rich identified the structural argument beneath the trade: China's currency manipulation was the origin of global imbalances, and Japan's massive yen printing campaign had the potential to displace China as the world's exporter while pulling the global economy out of its post-crisis malaise. The thesis was explicit — the Nikkei would trade back toward its all-time highs. A three-fold return.

Crude oil under $27 — down 75% from its highs. Rich called the bottom. The consensus was calling for $20, even $10. The price had fallen below the cost of production for most producers, and central banks would not allow a commodity-driven deflationary spiral to destabilize the global financial system.

With commodities trading into a triple bottom and 16-year trendline support, Rich identified the broader setup beneath the oil bottom: anticipated Chinese stimulus. Billionaire David Tepper had predicted the Chinese central bank would give global growth a "shot in the arm" — positioning for the asymmetric bet.

The Bank of Japan shocked the world by cutting rates below zero. Rich had been writing for weeks that global central banks wouldn't let deflationary pressures spiral. The BOJ move was the confirmation — the global "QE trade" was back on.

Election night. Futures plunged on Trump's victory. The consensus called it a catastrophe. Rich called it a buying opportunity — deregulation, tax reform, and infrastructure spending would be pro-growth and pro-stocks.

After Steve Bannon's Delivering Alpha interview, Rich connected the dots. The trade war wasn't new, and it wasn't about tariffs — it was about a 25-year economic war waged by China. The Chinese currency was the single most important variable to watch, and a big one-off devaluation was the biggest risk.

Rich identified that China had a political strategy, not just an economic one — deliberately waiting to see if Trump would lose Congressional support in the November midterms before agreeing to any trade deal. Also flagged China's ability to sell Treasuries as a weapon — driving up rates to destabilize U.S. markets before the election.

Rich zeroed in on the yuan / dollar exchange rate as the key chart to watch. China had not weakened the yuan beyond 7 per dollar since before Lehman. if that level breaks, it signals a currency war.

When the Fed stepped into the repo market with massive overnight injections, the consensus treated it as a plumbing issue — a technical glitch. Rich called it what it was: the Fed was back to expanding its balance sheet. Emergency QE by another name.

With the Fed already $267 billion into its balance sheet expansion, Rich connected the dots back to Bernanke's own words from his 2010 Washington Post column defending QE2. The architect of emergency monetary policy had explicitly stated that higher stock prices were an intended consequence of QE. the Fed was doing QE again, and Bernanke had already told the world what happens when they do.

Four days later, Rich showed that the aggregate balance sheet of the Fed, ECB, and BOJ had stopped declining and returned to new record highs. The premature tightening of late 2018 had nearly broken markets. Now, the central banks were back in easing mode. The switch was flipped.

The Fed announced unlimited QE — no ceiling on asset purchases. Stocks were down 34% from the highs. The consensus called it a depression. Rich called it the bottom — the central banks had just told you they would do whatever it takes. The asymmetry was overwhelmingly on the buy side.

Rich was tracking the data while the media consensus warned that reopening states would see devastating case surges. Georgia's data said the opposite.

Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus fueling an asset boom, with a technology revolution layered on top. The late '90s showed that a big first half could easily be followed by a big second half — in all five years of the boom.

Druckenmiller criticized the Fed — retail sales recovered in five months what took four years after the Great Financial Crisis, and were now running well above trend. The conclusion: hot inflation was coming, and the Fed had told you they'd let it run.

Rich identified that the expanded child tax credit — monthly cash payments to families — was functioning as a stealth universal income program, distorting the labor market. Job openings at record highs, but hiring dramatically below expectations. The "transitory" inflation narrative was wrong because the labor supply problem was structural, not temporary.

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. The consensus called it the next Lehman. Rich saw the central bank playbook at work — since 2008, every systemic threat has been met with intervention. The asymmetry was on the buy side.

Rich identified Nvidia's earnings blowout — revenue guidance 50% above consensus. A technology revolution on par with the internet was beginning. Added Nvidia to the Billionaire's Portfolio.

The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates, yield curve control, and ETF purchases in a single meeting — the most dramatic policy shift in a decade. Rich had been tracking the BOJ as the global liquidity provider for two years. He identified its exit as both the most important central bank event of the year and the most underappreciated risk to global bond markets. The note also flagged that "sustainable escape from deflation in Japan is highly questionable."

After a 7% pullback in the S&P 500, Rich called the shallow correction bullish. A feature of a strong bull market, not a warning sign. The same pattern appeared in gold, silver, and copper. The global easing cycle — starting with Switzerland, then Sweden, then the Bank of England — as the fuel for higher prices across the board.

When Trump nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, Rich immediately connected his background to the job ahead. Bessent was Druckenmiller's protégé. He understood the currency manipulation at the root of global imbalances. He had a "3-3-3" plan (3% GDP growth, 3% deficit, 3 million barrels/day more energy). And he openly said this might be "the last chance to grow our way out of the debt problem." The China confrontation was inevitable. Bessent would lead it.

The worst single-day decline since the pandemic. Rich walked through every comparable crash in S&P 500 history showed the same pattern: each turning point over the past five years was driven by monetary policy adjustment. The Fed is too tight, the economy is weakening, and the easing cycle will re-emerge. A buying opportunity, not a collapse.

The next day — as the selloff deepened — Rich exited Alkermes (taking profits on a successful Elliott-driven campaign) and added Nvidia to the Billionaire's Portfolio. The stock was trading at just 21 times forward earnings, down 38% from the highs, and back to its pre-split level — despite producing twice the revenue and twice the profit.

Five days into the tariff panic, Rich laid out the strategic framework: Trump was using Reagan's Cold War strategy — escalating to break the opponent economically. China responded with escalation (retaliatory tariffs, yuan devaluation to 18-year lows). This was the "high-water mark" of tariff escalation. Any news from here should be directionally positive.

With the U.S. striking Iran, the euro's 20% rally — driven by Europe's trillion-dollar "re-arming" aspiration — broke down. Rich had been writing for over a year about Trump systematically restructuring four pillars of European dependency: trade, defense, monetary architecture, and energy. The Iran campaign accelerated the financial stress on all four simultaneously — connecting back to the February 2025 analysis, thirteen months earlier, which had mapped the entire multi-front strategy.

Rich laid out the divergence in a single framework. America was running a "boom loop" — compute generates revenue, revenue funds more compute, compute generates more revenue. Europe was facing a "doom loop" — higher energy costs squeeze budgets, rising rates increase debt service, tightening credit weakens the economy, which pushes the fiscally fragile to the fiscally broken. Europe was paying seven times the U.S. energy price. And the Pentagon requested a $200 billion supplemental defense budget — not a surgical strike budget, but a multi-year industrial mobilization.